Friday 12 December 2014

Reflections On The Primaries


If the two main political parties could, they would have presented candidates for elections without primaries. For weeks, if not months, the Peoples Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress kept kicking the can down the road.

They were doing this for both strategic reasons and out of fear of the unknown. Given that next year’s election could be the most hotly contested since 1999, each party wanted to take advantage of the other’s misery. At the same time, each one was also aware that any internal injury could be worse than a predatory attack.

In her book, Hard Choices, Hillary Clinton narrated, in present tense, how the bitter rivalry during the primaries still got in the way between her and President Barack Obama’s White House staff. The former rivals just couldn’t get past the beef.

Wounds inflicted at primaries may be suppressed; they don’t heal. But parties, except North Korea’s politburo, have to deal with the sore.

The governorship and National Assembly primaries produced very interesting results. In Delta, my home state, the action was in the PDP. As gentlemen go, the state governor, Emmanuel Uduaghan, is a poster boy. He might not have delivered the moon on a stick, but after eight years in office, not a few think the LEADERSHIP Governor of the Year 2013 is leaving the state better than he met it.

His final wishes didn’t appear to be much – a Senate seat and the leeway to choose his successor. Aren’t these what most of the departing PDP governors agreed with President Goodluck Jonathan?

Shockingly, none of Uduaghan’s wishes came true. He would not be at the Senate and his preferred successor lost the primaries.

The official line is that he chose to work for the re-election of Jonathan, but, honestly, I don’t see how any of his two wishes would have prevented him from doing so. The unofficial word is that Uduaghan lost out in his power struggle against Tompolo and Edwin Clark.

They blocked the governor’s Senate ambition and thwarted his wish to install Anthony Obuh, while Jonathan looked the other way.

Life goes on. And no one knows that better than one of the five contestants for the PDP governorship ticket in Lagos – Musiliu Obanikoro. Forget his threat that it’s either his way or the highway. Losing politicians often make such threats to increase their afterlife value.

And in the case of Obanikoro losing the second time – this time to Jimi Agbaje – he really had to be dramatic for any hope of a third resurrection. Obanikoro should, however, be comforted that with Bode George as Agbaje’s new godfather, it won’t be long before they all get together again as one big losing family.

And did you notice how many bodies Dame Patience Jonathan had to trample over to install Nyesom Wike as the PDP candidate in Rivers State? I honestly don’t know what nice guys like Odein Ajumogobia and Tonye Princewill were looking for in the race. It’s a proxy war between Dame Jonathan and Governor Rotimi Amaechi and the battle axes have to be the most ruthless you can find. The Ogonis justifiably feel hard done by, but the battle has just begun.

Much the same can be said for Bayelsa. After weeks of denying any rift with Aso Rock, the parallel National Assembly primaries held in the state confirm that Governor Seriake Dickson is just steps away from a showdown with the Jonathans. Just in case he still has any illusions about how steamroller politics plays out, he could ask former governor Timipre Silva.

And did you notice that no zone had more parallel primaries than the south east? Three out of the five states in the zone had parallel primaries. It appears as if the primaries were business ventures. Depending on the size of one’s pocket, each aspirant simply arranged his own thing. In the end, almost all the aspirants emerged as candidates; there were no losers. Nice.

I must, however, commend the former minister of aviation Stella Oduah, who has shown that her political death was slightly exaggerated. She emerged, unquestionably, as the PDP’s candidate for Anambra North senatorial district. The princess who was preyed upon during most of her tenure for everything – from bullet proof cars to bullet proof skirts and oriental mascara – is just inches away from her comeuppance. She has my best wishes in the final race.

Even though Governor Godswill Akpabio paid for live coverage to show the world just how transparent the state’s governorship primary was, 23 aspirants boycotted the exercise, claiming the delegates list was rigged.

My advice to aspirants who find themselves in such situations in future is not only to publish the “authentic” list online, but also to record and stream their exit as it is happening, if they cannot afford the cost of TV coverage. That way, voters can choose which primaries to watch.

As for APC aspirant John Akpanudoedehe who complained that his rival Umana Umana hijacked the process and posted the result even before the process was completed, he should get over his misery fast.

If after serving as chairman of Akpabio’s election committee seven years ago, he still does not know that politics follows the money, then he does not know anything.



Still In A Fix Over The Barrel

At $65 per barrel, oil prices were at their lowest in years this week. After being held over the barrel for years, the US has finally earned its freedom from OPEC’s tyranny, by harvesting its own energy sources and turning the tables. Russia and Iran are in trouble already and both countries are trying to find ways to survive. Saudi Arabia’s deep pocket will keep it going for a while. Venezuela, Angola and Nigeria have been thrown to the wolves. With states in Nigeria already going bankrupt even at this early stage, if oil prices remain at current levels, I shiver to contemplate what would happen in two years’ time if we continue the way we have been doing things up there.

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